Compass · Your compass for investing

Understand your investments.
Decide with information.

Find out what you're buying, put past decisions to the test and explore how far consistency could take you. No hype. No impossible formulas.

Simulate my investment →Understand before investing
i Educational content. Not financial advice.
01 · EXPLORE

Get to know each asset
before you invest.

Compare assets in a simple, clear way. Find out what moves them, what role they can play and what risk you'd have to accept.

₿

THE ESSENTIALS, NO JARGON

Bitcoin

Historical growth
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Annual volatility
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Worst drop on record
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What it's used for
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Data since
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These figures come from each asset's real price history, not from estimates. Past growth doesn't predict the future.

02 · SIMULATE

The past won't come back.
But it can teach you.

Choose an asset, how much you would have invested and how many years ago. We'll show you what that investment would be worth today, based on what actually happened in the market.

This isn't a projection: it's what would really have happened, calculated on the asset's historical prices. Its real drops included.

Simulate a past investment and see what it would be worth today

It uses the asset's real prices, with their rises and their drops.

Asset

How you invest

What your investment was worth GainingLosing

today

Total contributed—
What it would be worth today—

03 · LOOK AHEAD

Your future can't be guessed.
It can be explored.

Here you look forward. You decide how much to invest and for how many years, and we calculate thousands of possible futures to see how well or how badly your plan could turn out. These are estimates, not promises.

Project your investment plan into the future

We combine real stretches of the asset's history with the growth you assume, and repeat the calculation 2,000 times. The result is a range of possibilities, not a prediction.

What is “typical” growth? It's the rate at which the middle case grows: the one with half the results above it and half below. It isn't the average. In a very volatile asset the average is quite a bit higher, because a few extraordinary results that almost never happen pull it up. That's why we use the typical rate here: it better describes what would happen to an ordinary person.

IF IT GOES BADLY · 1 IN 10

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MOST LIKELY · THE MIDDLE CASE

—Starting point

IF IT GOES VERY WELL · 1 IN 10

—
How it could evolve
Between bad and very good Most likely What you put in

What do these numbers mean?

This tool doesn't guess the future. It replays your plan 2000 times using real stretches of market history, and sorts the results.

  • “Most likely” is the middle result: half the runs ended above it and half below.
  • “If it goes badly” leaves one in ten runs below it. It isn't the worst that can happen.
  • Typical and average aren't the same. If you invest 100 and one year you gain 100% and the next you lose 50%, the simple average is +25% a year, but your money is back at exactly 100: your typical growth was 0%. The more an asset jumps around, the further apart the two figures get.
  • The shaded band in the chart is a statistical range, not three real investments: no investment follows its edge from start to finish.
  • Risk (volatility and drops) comes from real history. Growth is your choice, because there's no reason to take for granted that the past will continue.

Doesn't include taxes, fees, inflation or currency changes. Past or hypothetical returns don't guarantee future results.

04 · SUPPORT

If Compass gave you clarity,
help us share it.

Your support keeps this project independent and makes it possible to add better data and new tools. So more people can decide with judgment, not under pressure.

Turn a bit of your crypto into open financial education.

See how to support → We'll never ask you for private keys or recovery phrases.
Methodology

We use a block bootstrap on real historical returns: thousands of paths are built by copying randomly chosen consecutive one-year blocks of real history. Copying blocks, instead of single returns, keeps the streaks: in markets, good and bad stretches come linked together.

When money goes in: the initial amount goes in at the start, and each monthly contribution goes in at the beginning of its month, earning that month's return.

Risk and growth are kept apart: volatility and drops come from the asset's real history; annual growth is an assumption you choose.

Reproducible: the same settings always give the same result.

Assumptions
  • Nominal values, not adjusted for inflation.
  • S&P 500: dividends reinvested and fractional purchases. The fund's cost (0.03% a year) is deducted.
  • Crypto: spot market in USDT, shown in dollars assuming USD/USDT = 1. No futures, leverage or staking.
  • Fees and taxes are not deducted.
Where the data comes from