The usual questions, answered with data.
No opinions or promises: just what prices that actually happened show. What happened doesn't say what will happen, but it helps you get a sense of it.
Is it too late to buy bitcoin?
Nobody knows. What the data does show: in every four-year period since 2011, bitcoin ended higher than where it started, but returning far less than at the beginning. Someone who bought in January 2011 and waited four years earned 351% a year; someone who bought in October 2022, 41%. The worst of those periods returned 9% a year. And every cycle had drops of more than 70%.
Yearly return of each four-year period of bitcoin, by the month it started.
More on this: Worst drop · Halving · Annual return
What happens if bitcoin goes to zero?
You lose everything you put into bitcoin, and nothing more. That's why how much you put in matters: if it's 5% of your savings, a drop to zero costs you that 5%. Looking at real drops helps put it in perspective: bitcoin has already fallen 93% once, and ethereum 94%. If a drop like that would force you to sell, you put in too much.
More on this: Worst drop · Volatility
Why is the S&P 500 the benchmark?
Because it brings together 500 of the largest US companies and has almost a century of data. It never lost money over any 20-year period since 1926: the worst returned 1.8% a year (starting August 1929). Over 10 years it could lose: the worst period returned −5.4% a year, starting August 1929. It's the yardstick for whether taking more risk was worth it.
- 10-year periods
- 20-year periods
Yearly return of each 10- and 20-year period of the S&P 500, with dividends, by the year it started.
More on this: S&P 500 · Annual return · ETF (exchange-traded fund)
How long do you have to wait?
The longer, the more likely you ended up ahead, at least historically. In the S&P 500, investing for one year ended in a gain 76% of the time; for ten years, 95%; for twenty, 100%. In bitcoin, for one year, 71%; for four, 100%, with far fewer years of history.
S&P 500
Bitcoin
Of all the moments you could have started, the percentage that ended in a gain, by how long you waited.
More on this: Holding (HODL) · Volatility
Should you wait for a dip to buy?
Waiting has a cost too: while you wait, the money isn't invested. With the same $1,200, putting it all in at the start beat putting in $100 a month in 73 out of every 100 starts of the S&P 500 since 1926, and in 67 out of 100 with bitcoin since 2011. Buying little by little isn't about earning more, but about not depending on getting the timing right.
More on this: Buying a little every month (DCA) · Holding (HODL)
Calculated and reviewed by Compass. Sources, checks and method
Figures with data as of October 26, 2026. Educational content. Not financial advice. Past results don't guarantee future results.