People say
Bitcoin only goes up.
The data
Since 2011 it has had 5 drops of more than 70%. The worst, 93%, between June 2011 and November 2011.
Worst dropMyths versus data
What people say, versus what the data says.
Tap each card to flip it and see what real prices show.
People say
The stock market always recovers quickly.
The data
After 1929, the S&P 500 took 15 years and 5 months to get back to its peak, with dividends. After 2000, 6 years and 2 months.
Worst dropPeople say
If something returns 10% a year on average, my money grows 10% a year.
The data
No. +50% and −50% average 0%, but leave you with 75%. The S&P 500's years average 12.2%, but what it really grew each year was 10.2%. In bitcoin the gap is huge: 536% versus 102%.
Annual returnPeople say
You have to wait for the right moment to get in.
The data
Someone who bought bitcoin at the start of 2015 and never touched it multiplied their money 254×. Missing just the 10 best days left them at 46×. And the right moment only shows up in hindsight.
Holding (HODL)People say
A 1% yearly fee is nothing.
The data
Over 30 years, $10,000 in the US stock market ended at $202,714 with a 0.03% fee and at $151,317 with 1%: $51,397 less.
ETF (exchange-traded fund)People say
Bitcoin always rises after a halving.
The data
It rose in the year after all four, but by very different amounts, and the last was the weakest: 2012: +8,069%, 2016: +284%, 2020: +559%, 2024: +31%. Four cases are far too few to make a rule.
HalvingPeople say
If it falls 50%, a 50% rise gets me back.
People say
In the stock market, you never lose over 10 years.
The data
Almost never, but it happened: starting August 1929, the S&P 500 returned −5.4% a year for 10 years, with dividends. Over 20 years, by contrast, it never lost: the worst was +1.8% a year.
S&P 500Calculated and reviewed by Compass. Sources, checks and method
Figures with data as of October 26, 2026. Educational content. Not financial advice. Past results don't guarantee future results.